25esimo emendamento alla Costituzione Usa

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First Amendment

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

Second Amendment

A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.

Third Amendment

No Soldier shall, in time of peace be quartered in any house, without the consent of the Owner, nor in time of war, but in a manner to be prescribed by law.

Fourth Amendment

The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.

Fifth Amendment

No person shall be held to answer for a capital, or otherwise infamous crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a Grand Jury, except in cases arising in the land or naval forces, or in the Militia, when in actual service in time of War or public danger; nor shall any person be subject for the same offence to be twice put in jeopardy of life or limb; nor shall be compelled in any criminal case to be a witness against himself, nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation.

Sixth Amendment

In all criminal prosecutions, the accused shall enjoy the right to a speedy and public trial, by an impartial jury of the State and district wherein the crime shall have been committed, which district shall have been previously ascertained by law, and to be informed of the nature and cause of the accusation; to be confronted with the witnesses against him; to have compulsory process for obtaining witnesses in his favor, and to have the Assistance of Counsel for his defence.

Seventh Amendment

In Suits at common law, where the value in controversy shall exceed twenty dollars, the right of trial by jury shall be preserved, and no fact tried by a jury, shall be otherwise re-examined in any Court of the United States, than according to the rules of the common law.

Eighth Amendment

Excessive bail shall not be required, nor excessive fines imposed, nor cruel and unusual punishments inflicted.

Ninth Amendment

The enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people.

Tenth Amendment

The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.

Eleventh Amendment

The Judicial power of the United States shall not be construed to extend to any suit in law or equity, commenced or prosecuted against one of the United States by Citizens of another State, or by Citizens or Subjects of any Foreign State.

Twelfth Amendment

The Electors shall meet in their respective states and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves; they shall name in their ballots the person voted for as President, and in distinct ballots the person voted for as Vice-President, and they shall make distinct lists of all persons voted for as President, and of all persons voted for as Vice-President, and of the number of votes for each, which lists they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the seat of the government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate;–the President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates and the votes shall then be counted;–The person having the greatest number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice. [And if the House of Representatives shall not choose a President whenever the right of choice shall devolve upon them, before the fourth day of March next following, then the Vice-President shall act as President, as in case of the death or other constitutional disability of the President.–]The person having the greatest number of votes as Vice-President, shall be the Vice-President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed, and if no person have a majority, then from the two highest numbers on the list, the Senate shall choose the Vice-President; a quorum for the purpose shall consist of two-thirds of the whole number of Senators, and a majority of the whole number shall be necessary to a choice. But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.

Thirteenth Amendment

Section 1

Neither slavery nor involuntary servitude, except as a punishment for crime whereof the party shall have been duly convicted, shall exist within the United States, or any place subject to their jurisdiction.

Section 2

Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation.

Fourteenth Amendment

Section 1

All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside. No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.

Section 2

Representatives shall be apportioned among the several States according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each State, excluding Indians not taxed. But when the right to vote at any election for the choice of electors for President and Vice-President of the United States, Representatives in Congress, the Executive and Judicial officers of a State, or the members of the Legislature thereof, is denied to any of the male inhabitants of such State, being twenty-one years of age, and citizens of the United States, or in any way abridged, except for participation in rebellion, or other crime, the basis of representation therein shall be reduced in the proportion which the number of such male citizens shall bear to the whole number of male citizens twenty-one years of age in such State.

Section 3

No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.

Section 4

The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned. But neither the United States nor any State shall assume or pay any debt or obligation incurred in aid of insurrection or rebellion against the United States, or any claim for the loss or emancipation of any slave; but all such debts, obligations and claims shall be held illegal and void.

Section 5

The Congress shall have power to enforce, by appropriate legislation, the provisions of this article.

Fifteenth Amendment

Section 1

The right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of race, color, or previous condition of servitude–

 

Section 2

The Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation.

Sixteenth Amendment

The Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes on incomes, from whatever source derived, without apportionment among the several States, and without regard to any census or enumeration.

Seventeenth Amendment

The Senate of the United States shall be composed of two Senators from each State, elected by the people thereof, for six years; and each Senator shall have one vote. The electors in each State shall have the qualifications requisite for electors of the most numerous branch of the State legislatures.

When vacancies happen in the representation of any State in the Senate, the executive authority of such State shall issue writs of election to fill such vacancies: Provided, That the legislature of any State may empower the executive thereof to make temporary appointments until the people fill the vacancies by election as the legislature may direct.

This amendment shall not be so construed as to affect the election or term of any Senator chosen before it becomes valid as part of the Constitution.

Seventeenth Amendment

The Senate of the United States shall be composed of two Senators from each State, elected by the people thereof, for six years; and each Senator shall have one vote. The electors in each State shall have the qualifications requisite for electors of the most numerous branch of the State legislatures.

When vacancies happen in the representation of any State in the Senate, the executive authority of such State shall issue writs of election to fill such vacancies: Provided, That the legislature of any State may empower the executive thereof to make temporary appointments until the people fill the vacancies by election as the legislature may direct.

This amendment shall not be so construed as to affect the election or term of any Senator chosen before it becomes valid as part of the Constitution.

Nineteenth Amendment

The right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of sex.

Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation.

Twentieth Amendment

Section 1

The terms of the President and the Vice President shall end at noon on the 20th day of January, and the terms of Senators and Representatives at noon on the 3d day of January, of the years in which such terms would have ended if this article had not been ratified; and the terms of their successors shall then begin.

Section 2

The Congress shall assemble at least once in every year, and such meeting shall begin at noon on the 3d day of January, unless they shall by law appoint a different day.

Section 3

If, at the time fixed for the beginning of the term of the President, the President elect shall have died, the Vice President elect shall become President. If a President shall not have been chosen before the time fixed for the beginning of his term, or if the President elect shall have failed to qualify, then the Vice President elect shall act as President until a President shall have qualified; and the Congress may by law provide for the case wherein neither a President elect nor a Vice President elect shall have qualified, declaring who shall then act as President, or the manner in which one who is to act shall be selected, and such person shall act accordingly until a President or Vice President shall have qualified.

Section 4

The Congress may by law provide for the case of the death of any of the persons from whom the House of Representatives may choose a President whenever the right of choice shall have devolved upon them, and for the case of the death of any of the persons from whom the Senate may choose a Vice President whenever the right of choice shall have devolved upon them.

Section 5

Sections 1 and 2 shall take effect on the 15th day of October following the ratification of this article.

Section 6

This article shall be inoperative unless it shall have been ratified as an amendment to the Constitution by the legislatures of three-fourths of the several States within seven years from the date of its submission.

Twenty-First Amendment

Section 1

The eighteenth article of amendment to the Constitution of the United States is hereby repealed.

Section 2

The transportation or importation into any State, Territory, or possession of the United States for delivery or use therein of intoxicating liquors, in violation of the laws thereof, is hereby prohibited.

Section 3

This article shall be inoperative unless it shall have been ratified as an amendment to the Constitution by conventions in the several States, as provided in the Constitution, within seven years from the date of the submission hereof to the States by the Congress.

Twenty-Second Amendment

Section 1

No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once. But this Article shall not apply to any person holding the office of President when this Article was proposed by the Congress, and shall not prevent any person who may be holding the office of President, or acting as President, during the term within which this Article becomes operative from holding the office of President or acting as President during the remainder of such term.

SEction 2

This article shall be inoperative unless it shall have been ratified as an amendment to the Constitution by the legislatures of three-fourths of the several States within seven years from the date of its submission to the States by the Congress.

Twenty-Third Amendment

Section 1

The District constituting the seat of Government of the United States shall appoint in such manner as the Congress may direct:

A number of electors of President and Vice President equal to the whole number of Senators and Representatives in Congress to which the District would be entitled if it were a State, but in no event more than the least populous State; they shall be in addition to those appointed by the States, but they shall be considered, for the purposes of the election of President and Vice President, to be electors appointed by a State; and they shall meet in the District and perform such duties as provided by the twelfth article of amendment.

Section 2

The Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation.

Twenty-Fourth Amendment

Section 1

The right of citizens of the United States to vote in any primary or other election for President or Vice President, for electors for President or Vice President, or for Senator or Representative in Congress, shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or any State by reason of failure to pay any poll tax or other tax.

Section 2

The Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation.

Twenty-Fifth Amendment

Section 1

In case of the removal of the President from office or of his death or resignation, the Vice President shall become President.

Section 2

Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress.

Section 3

Whenever the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that he is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, and until he transmits to them a written declaration to the contrary, such powers and duties shall be discharged by the Vice President as Acting President.

Section 4

Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.

Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.

Twenty-Sixth Amendment

Section 1

The right of citizens of the United States, who are eighteen years of age or older, to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of age.

Section 2

The Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation.

Twenty-Seventh Amendment

No law, varying the compensation for the services of the Senators and Representatives, shall take effect, until an election of Representatives shall have intervened.

Cosa dice il 25esimo emendamento alla Costituzione Usa

La clausola sui cui scommette più o meno realisticamente Scott McConnell è quella definita dalla Sezione 4 del 25esimo emendamento alla Costituzione Usa. Ecco cosa dice, testualmente.

Nei casi in cui il Vice Presidente e una maggioranza o dei funzionari principali in ciascuno dei Dipartimenti dell’esecutivo o di un altro corpo che il Congresso può indicare con una legge trasmettano al Presidente pro tempore del Senato ed allo Speaker della Camera dei Rappresentanti una loro dichiarazione scritta che il Presidente non è in grado di esercitare i poteri e i doveri del suo ufficio, il Vice Presidente assumerà immediatamente l’incarico quale Presidente facente funzioni.

Dopo di ciò, quando il Presidente trasmetta al Presidente pro tempore del Senato ed allo Speaker della Camera dei Rappresentanti una sua dichiarazione scritta che non vi è alcuna inabilitazione, egli riassumerà i poteri e i doveri del suo ufficio, a meno che il Vice Presidente e una maggioranza o dei funzionari principali in ciascuno dei Dipartimenti dell’esecutivo o di un altro corpo che il Congresso può indicare con una legge, trasmettano entro quattro giorni al Presidente pro tempore del Senato ed allo Speaker della Camera dei Rappresentanti una loro dichiarazione scritta che il Presidente non è in grado di esercitare i poteri e i doveri del suo ufficio. In base a ciò il Congresso deciderà la questione, riunendosi entro quarantotto ore a questo fine se non è in sessione. Se il Congresso, entro ventuno giorni dal ricevimento della dichiarazione scritta detta da ultimo o, se il Congresso non è in sessione, entro ventuno giorni da quando il Congresso viene richiesto di riunirsi, determina coi due terzi dei voti di entrambe le Camere che il Presidente non è in grado di esercitare i poteri e i doveri del suo ufficio, il Vice Presidente continuerà ad esercitare gli stessi come Presidente facente funzioni; altrimenti il Presidente riassumerà i poteri e i doveri del suo ufficio.

In copertina: Il presidente Usa Donald J. Trump col vice JD Vance ad una cerimonia al cimitero di Arlington – Virginia, 26 maggio 2025 (Ansa/Epa – Jim Lo Scalzo)

The 25th Amendment establishes procedures for presidential succession and handling presidential disability, ensuring continuity of executive authority.
The 25th Amendment, ratified on February 10, 1967, clarifies what happens if a U.S. president dies, resigns, is removed, or becomes unable to perform the duties of office. It was introduced after the assassination of President John F. Kennedy to address gaps in presidential succession and temporary incapacity[^^14^^].

Section 1: Presidential Succession
If the president dies, resigns, or is removed, the vice president becomes president automatically, not just acting president.

Section 2: Vice Presidential Vacancy
If the vice presidency is vacant, the president nominates a new vice president, who must be confirmed by a majority in both the House and Senate. This ensures continuity in the line of succession.

Section 3: Voluntary Presidential Disability
The president can temporarily transfer authority to the vice president by submitting a written declaration to Congress stating they are unable to discharge their duties, such as during surgery. The vice president serves as acting president until the president declares they are able to resume office.
Congress.gov

Section 4: Involuntary Presidential Disability
If the president cannot or will not declare incapacity, the vice president and a majority of the Cabinet can submit a written declaration to Congress. The vice president then becomes acting president. If the president contests, Congress must decide within 21 days by a two-thirds vote in both chambers whether the president is unable to discharge duties. This section has never been fully invoked.
Congress.gov

Historical Use and Context
The amendment was first applied in 1973 when Gerald Ford became vice president after Spiro Agnew resigned, and again in 1974 when Ford became president after Nixon resigne
Sections 3 and 4 have been used for temporary medical procedures, such as when Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush temporarily transferred authority to their vice presidents during surgery

Section 4 remains controversial and politically challenging, requiring vice president and Cabinet cooperation, and has never been used to remove a sitting president against their will.

Modern Relevance
The 25th Amendment occasionally resurfaces in political debates. For example, in 2018 and 2026, discussions arose about its potential use regarding President Trump, though experts note that invocation is highly unlikely without broad Cabinet support. It serves as a constitutional safeguard to maintain government stability during crises or presidential incapacity.

In summary, the 25th Amendment provides a clear legal framework for presidential succession, temporary disability, and involuntary removal, ensuring continuity of executive leadership in the United States.

 

PART II

 

The 25th Amendment is once again a topic of discussion following a Justice Department report released Thursday concerning President Joe Biden’s alleged mishandling of confidential documents and behavior in office.

The special counsel investigation, led by Trump appointee Robert Hur, determined that the evidence doesn’t establish Biden’s guilt beyond a reasonable doubt of mishandling classified documents in a criminal manner and found that charges were “unwarranted based on our consideration of the aggravating and mitigating factors.”

However, the report also attributed part of this conclusion to Biden’s “poor memory,” painting a picture of an older man with memory issues and “diminished capacities.” This has prompted a discussion of the 25th Amendment amongst the Republican party, as reps including House Speaker Mike Johnson, Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., and Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., have called for Biden’s removal under the fourth section of the amendment.

The 25th Amendment was discussed similarly during Trump’s presidency. However, Section 4 has yet to be successfully invoked and executed in U.S. history.

Here’s what to know about the 25th Amendment and what invoking it can do.

What is the 25th Amendment?

The 25th Amendment addresses what happens if the president or vice president of the United States dies, resigns, becomes incapacitated or is otherwise unable to fulfill their duties. It was passed by Congress on July 6, 1965, and was ratified by the states on Feb. 10, 1967.

It also formalized the practice of the vice president taking over presidential office if the president dies or resigns and gives the president and Congress power to replace a vice president.

It was inspired by the assassination death of President John F. Kennedy, as confusion as to whether Vice President Lyndon B. Johnson had also been shot at the time led to questions about office succession.

Who can invoke the 25th Amendment?

Exonerated but not unscathed: Biden faces political nightmare with special counsel investigation

The 25th Amendment was introduced more than 50 years ago to create a way to remove a president unable to do their job.
zimmytws, Getty Images

The 25th Amendment cannot be executed by a single party. Instead, it takes a few steps of approval by multiple parties.

The vice president is the primary starting point for invoking the 25th Amendment, specifically the fourth section. The vice president, in conjunction with either a majority of the executive Cabinet or a specific “body” designated by Congress, must invoke the Amendment in tandem.

The vice president takes over once these parties submit a formal written declaration to Congress. If the president refutes this, they can return to power for four days, in which time the other parties can again submit a declaration invoking the president’s removal. If this happens, the VP takes over again and Congress must secure a two-thirds vote in both the House and Senate within 21 days to permanently remove the president.

How does the 25th Amendment work?

The 25th Amendment has four sections that can apply to different situations resulting in a president or vice president vacating or being forced to leave their position. In the case of presidential removal due to incompetence, it is Section 4 of the amendment specifically that applies.

Section 4 declares that, if the vice president and a majority of the executive Cabinet or a Congressionally appointed review body feel the president is no longer able to perform their duties, they can submit this belief in writing to Congress, resulting in the replacement of the president with the vice president. The president can submit a declaration to the contrary and bring the matter to voting in Congress.

Section 4 is the most controversial and has yet to be successfully used. The closest this section ever came to actual use was during Reagan’s presidency, when he was undergoing surgery after being shot in March 1981. His administration prepared the paperwork to make Vice President George H.W. Bush acting president, but it was never signed. Several members of his staff again suggested it in 1987, arguing the president was mentally inept, but his chief of staff disagreed and it was not further pursued.

It was again proposed during Trump’s presidency but was not ultimately invoked.

25th Amendment text

Section 1

In case of the removal of the President from office or of his death or resignation, the Vice President shall become President.

Section 2

Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress.

Section 3

Whenever the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that he is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, and until he transmits to them a written declaration to the contrary, such powers and duties shall be discharged by the Vice President as Acting President.

Section 4

Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.

Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.

PART III

 

The Twenty-fifth Amendment (Amendment XXV) to the United States Constitution addresses issues related to presidential succession and disability.

It clarifies that the vice president becomes president if the president dies, resigns, or is removed from office by impeachment. It also establishes the procedure for filling a vacancy in the office of the vice president.

The amendment provides for the temporary transfer of the president’s powers and duties to the vice president, either on the president’s initiative alone or on the initiative of the vice president, together with a majority of the president’s cabinet. In either case, the vice president becomes the acting president until the president’s powers and duties are restored.

The amendment was submitted to the states on July 6, 1965, by the 89th Congress, and was adopted on February 10, 1967, the day the requisite number of states (38) ratified it.

 

Section 1. In case of the removal of the President from office or of his death or resignation, the Vice President shall become President.

Section 1 clarifies that in the enumerated situations the vice president becomes president, instead of merely assuming the powers and duties of the presidency as acting president.[2] It operates automatically, without needing to be explicitly invoked.[3]: 108 

Section 2: Vice presidential vacancy

Section 2. Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress.

Section 2 provides a mechanism for filling a vacancy in the vice presidency. Before the Twenty-fifth Amendment, a vice-presidential vacancy continued until a new vice president took office at the start of the next presidential term; the vice presidency had become vacant several times due to death, resignation, or accession to the presidency, and these vacancies had often lasted several years.[2]

Section 3: President’s declaration of inability

Section 3. Whenever the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that he is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, and until he transmits to them a written declaration to the contrary, such powers and duties shall be discharged by the Vice President as Acting President.

Section 3 allows the president to voluntarily transfer presidential authority to the vice president (for example, in anticipation of a medical procedure) by declaring in writing his inability to discharge the presidency’s powers and duties. The vice president then assumes those powers and duties as acting president.[note 1] The vice president does not become president; the president remains in office, though without authority. The president regains those powers and duties upon declaring in writing his ability to discharge them.[3]: 112-3 

Section 4: Declaration by vice president and cabinet members of president’s inability

Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.

Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department [sic][note 2][7] or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.

Section 4 addresses the case of a president who cannot discharge the powers and duties of the presidency but also cannot, or does not, execute the voluntary declaration contemplated by Section 3.[3]: 117  It allows the vice president, together with a “majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide”,[note 3] to issue a written declaration that the president is unable to discharge his duties. When such a declaration is sent to Congress, the vice president immediately becomes acting president,[note 4] while (as with Section 3) the president remains in office, temporarily divested of authority.[9]

John Feerick, the principal draftsman of the amendment,[3]: xii, xx [4]: 5 [10] writes that Congress deliberately left the terms unable and inability undefined “since cases of inability could take various forms not neatly fitting into [a rigid] definition […] The debates surrounding the Twenty-fifth Amendment indicate that [those terms] are intended to cover all cases in which some condition or circumstance prevents the President from discharging his powers and duties”. [3]: 112  A survey of scholarship on the amendment found

no specific threshold—medical or otherwise—for the “inability” contemplated in Section 4. The framers specifically rejected any definition of the term, prioritizing flexibility. Those implementing Section 4 should focus on whether—in an objective sense taking all of the circumstances into account—the President is “unable to discharge the powers and duties” of the office. The amendment does not require that any particular type or amount of evidence be submitted to determine that the President is unable to perform his duties. While the framers did imagine that medical evidence would be helpful to the determination of whether the President is unable, neither medical expertise nor diagnosis is required for a determination of inability […] To be sure, foremost in [the minds of the framers] was a physical or mental impairment. But the text of Section 4 sets forth a flexible standard intentionally designed to apply to a wide variety of unforeseen emergencies.[4]: 7,20 

Among potential examples of such unforeseen emergencies, legal scholars have listed kidnapping of the president and “political emergencies” such as impeachment. Traits such as unpopularity, incompetence, impeachable conduct, poor judgment, or laziness might not in themselves constitute inability, but should such traits “rise to a level where they prevented the President from carrying out his or her constitutional duties, they still might constitute an inability, even in the absence of a formal medical diagnosis.” In addition, a president who already manifested disabling traits at the time he was elected is not thereby immunized from a declaration of inability.[4]: 21n63,22n67 

 

 

The “principal officers of the executive department[s]” are the 15 Cabinet members enumerated in the United States Code at 5 U.S.C. § 101:[11][12]

Acting secretaries can participate in issuing the declaration.[3]: 117-8 [4]: 13 

If the president subsequently issues a declaration claiming to be able, then a four-day period begins during which the vice president remains acting president.[3]: 118-9 [4]: 38n137  If, by the end of this period, the vice president and a majority of the “principal officers” have not issued a second declaration of the president’s inability, the president resumes his powers and duties; but if they do issue a second declaration within those four days, then the vice president remains acting president while Congress considers the matter. Then, if within 21 days the Senate and the House determine, each by a two-thirds vote, that the president is unable, the vice president remains acting president; otherwise the president resumes his powers and duties.[note 5]

Section 4’s requirement of a two-thirds vote in both the House and the Senate is stricter than the Constitution’s requirement for impeachment and removal of the president for “high crimes and misdemeanors”—a majority of the House followed by two-thirds of the Senate.[3]: 120n [14][15][16] In addition, an impeached president retains his authority unless and until the Senate votes to remove him or her at the end of an impeachment trial; in contrast, should Congress be called upon to decide the question of the president’s ability or inability under Section 4, presidential authority remains in the hands of the vice president (as acting president) unless and until the question is resolved in the president’s favor.[3]: 118–20 

Historical background

Article II, Section 1, Clause 6 of the Constitution reads:

In Case of the Removal of the President from Office, or of his Death, Resignation, or Inability to discharge the Powers and Duties of the said Office, the Same shall devolve on the Vice President

This provision is ambiguous as to whether, under the enumerated circumstances, the vice president becomes president (that is, the “Office […] shall devolve on” the vice president) or merely assumes the “powers and duties” of the presidency (that is, the “Powers and Duties […] shall devolve upon” the vice president). It also fails to define inability or to say how questions about inability are to be resolved.[17] The Twenty-fifth Amendment addresses these deficiencies.[2] The ambiguities in Article II, Section 1, Clause 6 of the Constitution regarding death, resignation, removal, or disability of the president created difficulties several times:

Upon the death of William Henry HarrisonJohn Tyler (pictured) became the first incumbent vice president to succeed to the presidency.
  • In 1841, William Henry Harrison died in office. It had previously been suggested that the vice president would become acting president upon the president’s death,[18] but Vice President John Tyler asserted that he had succeeded to the presidency, instead of merely assuming its powers and duties; he also declined to acknowledge documents referring to him as “acting president”. Although Tyler felt his vice-presidential oath obviated any need for the presidential oath, he was persuaded that being formally sworn in would resolve any doubts. Accordingly, he took the oath and title of “President”, without any qualifiers, moved into the White House, and assumed full presidential powers. Tyler was sometimes derided as “His Accidency”,[19] but both houses of Congress adopted a resolution confirming that he was president. The Tyler Precedent of succession was thus established,[20] and subsequently Vice Presidents Millard Fillmore (1850), Andrew Johnson (1865), Chester A. Arthur (1881), Theodore Roosevelt (1901), Calvin Coolidge (1923), Harry S. Truman (1945), and Lyndon B. Johnson (1963) were all deemed to have become president on the death of incumbent presidents.[4]: ix  Section 1 codified this precedent.
  • In 1893, Grover Cleveland secretly had cancer surgery, after which he was incapacitated for a time and kept from public view.
  • After Woodrow Wilson’s stroke in 1919, no one officially assumed his powers and duties, in part because his wife, Edith Wilson, and the White House physician, Cary T. Grayson, kept his condition secret.[21] By the time Wilson’s condition became public knowledge, only a few months remained in his term and Congressional leaders were disinclined to press the issue.[3]: 14–16 
  • By 1967, the office of vice president had become vacant 16 times when the vice president died, resigned, or succeeded to the presidency.[22] The vacancy created when Andrew Johnson succeeded to the presidency upon Abraham Lincoln‘s assassination was one of several that encompassed nearly an entire four-year term. In 1868, Johnson was impeached by the House of Representatives and came one vote short of being removed from office by the Senate in his impeachment trial. Had Johnson been removed, President pro tempore Benjamin Wade would have become acting president in accordance with the Presidential Succession Act of 1792.[23]
  • After several periods of incapacity due to severe health problems, President Dwight D. Eisenhower attempted to clarify procedures through a signed agreement with Vice President Richard Nixon, drafted by Attorney General Herbert Brownell Jr., but this agreement had no legal authority.[24] Eisenhower suffered a heart attack in September 1955 and intestinal problems requiring emergency surgery in July 1956. Each time, until Eisenhower was able to resume his duties, Nixon presided over Cabinet meetings and, along with Eisenhower aides, kept the executive branch functioning and assured the public the situation was under control. But Nixon refused to use the president’s White House office or sit in the president’s chair at Cabinet meetings.[3]: 22 

The 1951 novel The Caine Mutiny and its 1954 film version influenced the amendment’s drafters. John D. Feerick told The Washington Post in 2018 that the film was a “live depiction” of the type of crisis that could arise “if a president ever faced questions about physical or mental inabilities but disagreed completely with the judgment”, a situation the Constitution did not address. Lawmakers drafting the amendment intentionally omitted any wording that the vice president or other officials could exploit to depose the president merely by saying that he was “disabled”, as the crew in the novel did to Captain Queeg.[25]

Proposal, enactment, and ratification

Keating–Kefauver proposal

In 1963, Senator Kenneth Keating of New York proposed a Constitutional amendment that would have enabled Congress to enact legislation providing for how to determine when a president is unable to discharge the powers and duties of the presidency, rather than, as the Twenty-fifth Amendment does, having the Constitution so provide.[26]: 345  This proposal was based upon a recommendation of the American Bar Association in 1960.[26]: 27 

The text of the proposal read:[26]: 350 

In case of the removal of the President from office or of his death or resignation, the said office shall devolve on the Vice President. In case of the inability of the President to discharge the powers and duties of the said office, the said powers and duties shall devolve on the Vice President, until the inability be removed. The Congress may by law provide for the case of removal, death, resignation or inability, both of the President and Vice President, declaring what officer shall then be President, or, in case of inability, act as President, and such officer shall be or act as President accordingly, until a President shall be elected or, in case of inability, until the inability shall be earlier removed. The commencement and termination of any inability shall be determined by such method as Congress shall by law provide.

Senators raised concerns that the Congress could either abuse such authority[26]: 30  or neglect to enact any such legislation after the adoption of this proposal.[26]: 34–35  Tennessee senator Estes Kefauver, the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee’s Subcommittee on Constitutional Amendments, a longtime advocate for addressing the disability question, spearheaded the effort until he died in August 1963.[26]: 28  Keating was defeated in the 1964 election, but Senator Roman Hruska of Nebraska took up Keating’s cause as a new member of the Subcommittee on Constitutional Amendments.[24]

Kennedy assassination

By the 1960s, medical advances had made it increasingly plausible that an injured or ill president might live a long time while incapacitated. The assassination of John F. Kennedy in 1963 underscored the need for a clear procedure for determining presidential disability,[27] particularly since the new president, Lyndon B. Johnson, had once suffered a heart attack[28] and—with the office of vice president to remain vacant until the next term began on January 20, 1965—the next two people in the line of succession were the 71-year-old speaker of the House, John W. McCormack,[27] and the 86-year-old Senate president pro tempore, Carl Hayden.[27][29] Senator Birch Bayh succeeded Kefauver as chairman of the Subcommittee on Constitutional Amendments and set about advocating a detailed amendment dealing with presidential disability.[27]

Bayh–Celler proposal

The Twenty-fifth Amendment in the National Archives
Page 1
Page 2

On January 6, 1965, Bayh proposed S.J. Res. 1 in the Senate and Representative Emanuel Celler (Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee) proposed H.J. Res. 1 in the House of Representatives. Their proposal specified the process by which a president could be declared “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office”, thereby making the vice president an acting president, and how the president could regain the powers of his office. Their proposal also provided a way to fill a vacancy in the office of vice president before the next presidential election.[26]: 348–350 

This was as opposed to the Keating–Kefauver proposal, which provided processes neither for filling a vacancy in the office of vice president before the next presidential election nor for determining presidential disability. In 1964, the American Bar Association endorsed the type of proposal Bayh and Celler advocated.[26]: 348–350  On January 28, 1965, President Johnson endorsed S.J. Res. 1 in a statement to Congress.[24] The proposal received bipartisan support.[5]: 6 

The Senate passed the amendment on February 19, but the House passed a different version of the amendment on April 13. On April 22 it was returned to the Senate with revisions.[24] There were four areas of disagreement between the House and Senate versions:

  • the Senate official who was to receive any written declaration under the amendment;
  • the period of time during which the vice president and principal officers of the executive departments must decide whether they disagree with the president’s declaration that he is fit to resume the duties of the presidency;
  • the time before Congress meets to resolve the issue;
  • the time limit for Congress to reach a decision.[24]

On July 6, after a conference committee ironed out differences between the versions,[30] the amendment’s final version passed both houses of Congress and was presented to the states for ratification.[note 6][26]: 354–358 

Ratification

Nebraska was the first state to ratify the amendment, on July 12, 1965. Ratification became complete when Nevada became the 38th state to ratify it, on February 10, 1967.[note 7]

When President Lyndon B. Johnson underwent planned surgery in 1965, he was unable to temporarily transfer power to Vice President Hubert H. Humphrey because the amendment’s ratification remained incomplete. On February 23, 1967, at the White House ceremony certifying the ratification, Johnson said:

It was 180 years ago, in the closing days of the Constitutional Convention, that the Founding Fathers debated the question of Presidential disability. John Dickinson of Delaware asked this question: “What is the extent of the term ‘disability’ and who is to be the judge of it?” No one replied. It is hard to believe that until last week our Constitution provided no clear answer. Now, at last, the 25th amendment clarifies the crucial clause that provides for succession to the Presidency and for filling a Vice Presidential vacancy.[34]

Invocations

Sections 1 and 2: Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Nelson Rockefeller

On October 10, 1973, Vice President Spiro Agnew resigned, following a controversy over his personal taxes; two days later, President Richard Nixon nominated Representative Gerald Ford to replace Agnew as vice president pursuant to Section 2. Ford was confirmed by the Senate and the House on November 27 and December 6, respectively, and sworn in on December 6.[35]

On August 9, 1974, Nixon resigned due to the Watergate scandal and Ford became president under Section 1, the only president never to have been elected to either the presidency or the vice presidency.[36] The office of vice president was thus again vacant, and on August 20 Ford nominated former New York governor Nelson Rockefeller.[3]: 167–169  Rockefeller was confirmed by the Senate and the House on December 10 and 19, respectively, and sworn in on December 19.[3]: 186–187 

Feerick writes that the Twenty-fifth Amendment helped pave the way for Nixon’s resignation during the Watergate scandal. Nixon and Agnew were Republicans, and in the months immediately after Agnew resigned, with the vice presidency empty, Nixon’s removal or resignation would have transferred the presidential powers to House Speaker Carl Albert, a Democrat. But once Ford, a Republican, became vice president under Section 2, Nixon’s removal became more palatable because it would not change the party holding the presidency, and therefore “the momentum for exposing the truth about Nixon’s involvement in Watergate increased”. [3]: 158 

Section 3

On December 22, 1978, President Jimmy Carter considered invoking Section 3 in advance of hemorrhoid surgery.[37] Since then, presidents Ronald ReaganGeorge H. W. BushBill ClintonBarack Obama, and Donald Trump also contemplated invoking Section 3 at various times without doing so.[38]

1985: Ronald Reagan – George H. W. Bush as acting president

On July 12, 1985, President Reagan underwent a colonoscopy and was diagnosed with bowel cancer. He elected to have the lesion removed immediately,[39] and consulted with White House counsel Fred F. Fielding about whether to invoke Section 3, and in particular about whether doing so would set an undesirable precedent. Fielding and White House Chief of Staff Donald Regan recommended that Reagan transfer power, and two letters were drafted: one specifically invoking Section 3, the other mentioning only that Reagan was mindful of its provisions. On July 13, Reagan signed the letter mentioning that he was mindful of Section 3[40] before being placed under general anesthesia for a colectomy.[41] Vice President George H. W. Bush was acting president from 11:28 a.m. until 7:22 p.m., when Reagan transmitted a letter declaring himself able to resume his duties.[42]

In the Fordham Law Review, commentator John Feerick asserted that although Reagan disclaimed any use of the Twenty-fifth Amendment in his letter (likely out of “fear of the reaction of the country and the world to a ‘President’ who admitted to being disabled, and concern … [over] set[ting] a harmful precedent”), he followed the process set forth in Section 3. Furthermore, Feerick noted that “no constitutional provision except the Twenty-Fifth Amendment would have allowed” him to designate the vice president as acting president. Reagan later wrote in a memoir that he had, in fact, invoked the Twenty-fifth Amendment.[43]

2002 and 2007: George W. Bush – Dick Cheney as acting president

On June 29, 2002, President George W. Bush explicitly invoked Section 3 in temporarily transferring his powers to Vice President Dick Cheney before undergoing a colonoscopy, which began at 7:09 a.m. Bush woke about 40 minutes later, but refrained from resuming his presidential powers until 9:24 a.m. to ensure that no aftereffects remained.[40][44] According to his staff, Cheney (as acting president) held his regular national security and homeland security meetings with aides at the White House, but made no appearances and took no recorded actions while acting president.[44]

On July 21, 2007, Bush invoked Section 3 before another colonoscopy. Cheney was acting president from 7:16 a.m. to 9:21 a.m.[40] During that time, Cheney remained at home.[45] Neither invocation received much attention in the press.[45]

In the view of commentator Adam Gustafson, George W. Bush’s unambiguous application of Section 3 “rectified” President Reagan’s “ambivalent invocation” and provided an example of a “smooth and temporary transition” under Section 3 that paved the way for future applications. The two invocations established the reasonableness of invocation for relatively minor inabilities, promoting continuity in the Executive Branch.[45]

2021: Joe Biden – Kamala Harris as acting president

On November 19, 2021, President Joe Biden temporarily transferred his powers and duties to Vice President Kamala Harris before undergoing a colonoscopy, making her acting president from 10:10 a.m. to 11:35 a.m. This is the first time a woman held the powers and duties of the president of the United States.[46][47]

Considered invocations of Section 4

1981: Reagan assassination attempt

After the attempted assassination of Ronald Reagan on March 30, 1981, Vice President George H. W. Bush did not assume the presidential powers and duties as acting president. Reagan had been rushed into surgery with no opportunity to invoke Section 3; Bush did not invoke Section 4 because he was on a plane at the time of the shooting, and Reagan was out of surgery by the time Bush landed in Washington.[48]

In 1995, Birch Bayh, the primary sponsor of the amendment in the Senate, wrote that Section 4 should have been invoked.[49] Physician to the President Daniel Ruge, who supervised Reagan’s treatment immediately after the shooting, said he had erred by not having Reagan invoke Section 3 because Reagan needed general anesthesia and was in an intensive care unit.[50]

2021: Trump and the Capitol attack

After the January 6 United States Capitol attack, President Donald Trump was accused of having incited the incident,[51][52][53] and by evening some of his Cabinet members were reportedly considering trying to get Vice President Mike Pence to agree to invoke Section 4.[54] According to multiple sources, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was reluctant to impeach Trump a second time and, as an alternative disciplinary measure, asked Pence to agree to invoke the 25th Amendment in early 2021. Pence refused.[55][56]

See also

Notes

  1.  As acting president, the vice president may employ “all the powers and tools of the office of the president”, taking actions such as moving troops, reporting on the state of the Union, proposing budgets, nominating judges, and removing cabinet secretaries.[4]: 44  But it is unclear whether the vice president, while acting president, retains all the powers and duties of the vice presidency; for example, authorities express reservation as to whether the vice president would continue to preside over the Senate, especially since doing so could put him or her in the position of overseeing the Senate’s deliberations on the validity of his or her determination, under Section4, that the president is unable to discharge his or her duties.[3]: 44n155  ArticleI, Section3, clause5 of the Constitution provides that, “The Senate shall chuse their other Officers, and also a President pro tempore, in the Absence of the Vice President, or when he shall exercise the Office of President of the United States.” [5]: 3 
  2.  Here the word department should read departments. Feerick has written that on the very day the Senate was to vote on the amendment, “I noticed a scrivener’s error in the draft of the conference report. When I reached Senator Bayh‘s staff by telephone, possibly on July 6, with my observation, I was told that the amendment had just been approved that day by the Senate, 68 to 5, and was on its way to the states for ratification. In other words, the amendment was beyond rescue for correction.” [6]: 1101 
  3.  No such “other body” has ever been designated,[3]: 120  though there have been proposals.[8] Congress’s discretion in designating such a body and how it would deliberate is “vast” – it could even designate itself[4]: 16  – but any designating act would be subject to presidential veto (which in turn can be overridden by two-thirds of both the House and Senate) just like any other statute.[4]: 14  Should such a body be created, it would become the only body capable of acting in concert with the vice president under Section4; the 15 cabinet officers would have no role.[4]: 14-15  But the vice president’s participation is essential, and vacancy in the vice presidency rules out invocation of Section4.[3]: 121 
  4.  The transfer of power to the vice president occurs at the moment the declaration is sent to the Speaker and President pro tempore, not at the moment of receipt,[4]: 39 [3]: 118  and regardless of whether Congress is in session at the time of transmittal.[3]: 118 
  5.  If Congress is in session when it receives the second declaration of incapacity, the 21 days begin at that point; otherwise they begin at the end of the 48 hours given for Congress to assemble. The president resumes his powers and duties when either the Senate or the House holds a vote on the question that falls short of the two-thirds requirement or the 21 days pass without both votes having been taken.[4]: 52 [13]
  6.  On February 19, the Senate passed its version unanimously (72–0, with 28 absent on business or illness, all of whom said they would have voted “yea”).
    On April 13, the House passed its version 368–29 with 36 not voting (30 of the 36 coming from 15 2–1pairs with two “yea” votes paired to one “nay” vote, unofficially 388–39).
    On June 30, the House agreed to the conference committee’s report by unanimous consent.
    On July 6, the Senate agreed to the report 68–5 with 27 absent on business (seven said they would have voted “yea”, eight did not say, and 12 formed four 2–1pairs with two “yea” votes paired to one “nay” vote, unofficially 83–9).[31]
  7.  The states ratified as follows:[32]
    1. Nebraska (July 12, 1965)
    2. Wisconsin (July 13, 1965)
    3. Oklahoma (July 16, 1965)
    4. Massachusetts (August 9, 1965)
    5. Pennsylvania (August 18, 1965)
    6. Kentucky (September 15, 1965)
    7. Arizona (September 22, 1965)
    8. Michigan (October 5, 1965)
    9. Indiana (October 20, 1965)
    10. California (October 21, 1965)
    11. Arkansas (November 4, 1965)
    12. New Jersey (November 29, 1965)
    13. Delaware (December 7, 1965)
    14. Utah (January 17, 1966)
    15. West Virginia (January 20, 1966)
    16. Maine (January 24, 1966)
    17. Rhode Island (January 28, 1966)
    18. Colorado (February 3, 1966)
    19. New Mexico (February 3, 1966)
    20. Kansas (February 8, 1966)
    21. Vermont (February 10, 1966)
    22. Alaska (February 18, 1966)
    23. Idaho (March 2, 1966)
    24. Hawaii (March 3, 1966)
    25. Virginia (March 8, 1966)
    26. Mississippi (March 10, 1966)
    27. New York (March 14, 1966)
    28. Maryland (March 23, 1966)
    29. Missouri (March 30, 1966)
    30. New Hampshire (June 13, 1966)
    31. Louisiana (July 5, 1966)
    32. Tennessee (January 12, 1967)
    33. Wyoming (January 25, 1967)
    34. Washington (January 26, 1967)
    35. Iowa (January 26, 1967)
    36. Oregon (February 2, 1967)

    PART III

    Il piano segreto , la rivolta mancata e i raid: spunta il retroscena sulla guerra in Iran

    Il piano per raggiungere un regime change in Iran attraverso l’operato del Mossad, che avrebbe dovuto “innescare una rivolta interna” per abbattere il regime teocratico degli ayatollah, dopo una decapitazione “dal cielo”, è fallito. O è stato quanto meno accantonato. Secondo quanto riportato oggi dal New York Times, che ha intervistato più di una dozzina di funzionari al corrente dei fatti, le speranze che il presidente americano Donald Trump riponeva nelle capacità degli israeliani, considerati da buona parte dell’opinione pubblica statunitense i veri promotori dell’escalation in Medio Oriente, erano mal riposte.

    All’inizio della quarta settimana di guerra, dopo aver colpito oltre 10.000 obiettivi militari e governativi nella campagna aerea congiunta condotta dalla coalizione israelo-statunitense, il regime di Teheran sembra aver perso le sue figure apicali, ma nessun genere di consenso da parte del popolo, che ora deve fare i conti con le bombe. Stando alle valutazioni dell’intelligence americana e israeliana, la conclusione è che il “governo teocratico iraniano è indebolito ma intatto”. L’infiltrazione di centinaia di spie del Mossad per destabilizzare l’Iran dall’interno e reclutare agenti provocatori non ha ottenuto il successo sperato.

    Il vertice dell’intelligence israeliana per le operazioni all’estero, David Barnea, aveva garantito al primo ministro Benjamin Netanyahu che il Mossad, che muove le sue pedine da prima dello scorso giugno, quando è stata lanciata l’operazione Rising Lion, sarebbe stato “in grado di galvanizzare l’opposizione iraniana, innescando rivolte e altri atti di ribellione che avrebbero potuto persino portare al crollo del governo iraniano”. Ma così non è stato. Dando ragione al suo predecessore, Yossi Cohen, che aveva finito per concludere che “tentare di fomentare una ribellione all’interno dell’Iran era una perdita di tempo”, ordinando di ridurre al minimo le risorse dedicate a tale scopo. Le analisi su “quanti cittadini iraniani avrebbero dovuto partecipare alle proteste” affinché queste rappresentassero una vera minaccia per il regime consideravano numeri analoghi a quelli raggiunti durante la rivoluzione iraniana del 1979, difficilmente raggiungibili.

    La serie di operazioni di intelligence e guerra psicologica volte a incoraggiare il cambio di regime, che si ritiene possano aver coinvolto anche la Cia, non sono bastate ad allargare le rivolte spontanee, represse nel sangue dal Basij, la forza paramilitare agli ordini dell’ayatollah, e la campagna di bombardamenti deve aver influito negativamente sui moti di piazza, portando la popolazione verso una reazione inversa. E questo nonostante la decapitazione del regime, che ha sopportato la morte della guida suprema Ali Khamenei e di figure apicali come il capo della Basij, Gholamreza Soleimani, il segretario del Consiglio supremo per la sicurezza nazionale iraniano Ali Larijani e gran parte dei rappresentanti della Difesa, compresi i vertici del Corpo dei Guardiani della Rivoluzione Islamica.

    Alti funzionari americani e analisti dell’intelligence militare israeliana, l’Aman, hanno sempre “guardato con scetticismo al piano israeliano per una rivolta di massa durante il conflitto”, scrive il New York Times, sottolineando come i vertici militari statunitensi avessero avvertito il Presidente che “gli iraniani non sarebbero scesi in piazza a protestare mentre Stati Uniti e Israele bombardavano”. Un’analisi che fa spavento per la sua ovvietà.

    Un funzionario statunitense del team di negoziatori dell’inviato speciale della Casa Bianca per le questioni mediorientali Steven Witkoff ha dichiarato di non aver “mai visto un piano serio per promuovere una rivolta interna in Iran” da parte del governo statunitense nei suoi “molti anni di lavoro sulla politica iraniana”.

    Il fattore paura, di essere uccisi dalle milizie degli ayatollah o dalle bombe israeliane o americane, ha congelato ogni rimostranza nella popolazione iraniana, che è scesa in piazza tra dicembre e gennaio, quando il Mossad scriveva in farsi: “Scendiamo insieme in piazza. È giunto il momento. Siamo con voi”, sostenendo di essere presente “sul campo” insieme ai manifestanti iraniani, mentre l’ex capo della CIA Mike Pompeo postava su X: “Buon anno a tutti gli iraniani in piazza. E anche a tutti gli agenti del Mossad che camminano al loro fianco”.

    Se Washington e Tel Aviv speravano di fomentare una “rivolta diffusa” lasciando l’Iran a fare i conti con se stesso all’interno del Paese, ora si trovano a dover affrontare un conflitto che si sta estendendo a tutto il Medio Oriente, con ripercussioni gravissime per il sistema energetico ed economico. Invece di “implodere dall’interno”, il governo iraniano ha esacerbato il conflitto, mettendo nel mirino dei suoi droni suicidi e dei suoi missili non solo gli asset militari statunitensi sparsi nel Golfo Persico, ma tutte le infrastrutture vulnerabili, bloccando — come ci si aspettava — le rotte marittime che passano per lo stretto strategico di Hormuz e congelando di conseguenza l’approvvigionamento di petrolio e gas per molti attori internazionali, facendo precipitare l’economia della regione.

    Mentre il premier israeliano Netanyahu continua ad affermare che la campagna contro l’Iran potrebbe entrare in una “nuova fase” che prevede operazioni terrestri per conseguire gli obiettivi prefissati — la distruzione del programma nucleare e missilistico iraniano — a Washington l’ottimismo per una risoluzione vantaggiosa di questo conflitto si fa sempre più tiepido, nonostante i “colloqui molto buoni e produttivi” per risolvere le ostilità annunciati da Trump per posticipare il suo ultimatum, e che, come prevedibile, sono stati immediatamente smentiti da Teheran per indicare una “marcia indietro” dell’America.

    Funzionari americani informati sulle valutazioni dell’intelligence prima della guerra hanno affermato che la CIA aveva valutato una serie di possibili sviluppi all’interno dell’Iran once iniziato il conflitto. Le agenzie di intelligence consideravano un crollo totale del governo iraniano un esito relativamente improbabile, e la loro previsione sembra essersi rivelata “fondata”. Sebbene altri funzionari americani a conoscenza dei report dell’intelligence affermano che una delle ipotesi prese in seria considerazione prevede che “elementi armati del governo iraniano potrebbero rivoltarsi l’uno contro l’altro o intraprendere azioni che potrebbero scatenare una guerra civile”. Secondo i rapporti, è più probabile che queste fazioni “sostengano gruppi rivali di leader religiosi, piuttosto che rappresentare un movimento democratico”, allontanando, anche in questo senso, un futuro democratico per l’antica Persia.

Forniture di droni missili alle proprie forze armate ed agli alleati /clienti nel Golfo persico: gli americani stanno facendo ottimi affari ma anche una corsa contro il tempo, nota il Wall Street Journal, dal momento che gli iraniani continuano a combattere. Le vendite future di armi in zona sono stimate in 20 miliardi di euro, ma le petromonarchie che chiedono più armi e per ora lo Zio Sam, a quanto pare, non riuscirebbe a soddisfare le richieste.

Va detto però che i pesanti bombardamenti israelo-americani hanno ridotto i lanci di missili iraniani, i quali ora tendono a lanciare i missili contro obiettivi sempre più sensibili per gli avversari.

Per adesso gli Emirati arabi uniti e gli altri Paesi vicini hanno detto di essere a posto con la difesa antiaerea, ma pare che Teheran abbia colpito alcuni radar d’allerta missilistica americani e alleati nel Golfo che hanno indebolito i sistemi contraerei, cosa che ha permesso di colpire gli impianti petroliferi e del gas, soprattutto quello, in Qatar. Ci vorranno anni per ripararli.

Il mercato dei droni intercettori

Ora si sta puntando sui droni intercettori, meno costosi e più efficienti nella risposta contro i missili iraniani. Alcuni di essi sono già stati collaudati sul campo in Ucraina. Una parte delle forniture va direttamente dal Pentagono alle forze americane dislocate sullo scacchiere mediorientale; il resto sono le famose vendite per 20 miliardi di euro che si spartiscono Uae, Kuwait e Giordania.

Va detto che gli emiratini hanno fatto spesa: un miliardo di euro per missili aria-aria (pronta consegna); 4,9 miliardi euro per il missile antiaereo Pac 3 e 3,9 miliardi euro per il sistema antimissile Thaad, ritenuto infallibile (gli americani hanno 7 rampe di questo sistema in totale).

Tutto bene? Sulla carta: l’amministrazione di Donald Trump sta facendo di tutto per accelerare le vendite di queste armi applicando alcune regole d’emergenza che bypassano l’approvazione del congresso, ma il problema è che le fabbriche non riescono a stare al passo e, semplicemente, per adesso alcuni sistemi non saranno consegnati.

Ma dall’altro lato come vanno le cose? Secondo Le Monde prima della guerra, Teheran disponeva di uno stock missilistico stimato tra 1.700 e 2.900 missili; al momento si parla di una riserva tra i 450 e le 1.700 unità, più i droni. Per fortuna i bombardamenti israelo-americani hanno distrutto, a quanto pare, la capacità di Teheran di costruire nuovi missili, ma c’è chi sospetta che la Russia stia fornendo droni agli iraniani e comunque, secondo il quotidiano francese, Teheran starebbe continuando a produrli da sé senza bisogno di aiuti esterni. Un bel problema, perché i droni non hanno bisogno di rampe speciali: basta metterli dentro un cassone su un pick up, e si possono trasportare e lanciare da qualsiasi punto dell’Iran.

La sfida delle difese antidrone

Piuttosto, sono le difese antidrone che possono mettere in difficoltà gli arsenali: ne sa qualcosa la Francia che ha come clienti gli Emirati arabi uniti i quali, a detta di qualche fonte bene informata, sarebbero «piuttosto esigenti»: Parigi ha schierato 24 caccia Rafale, che contro i droni possono sparare con il cannoncino in dotazione oppure lanciare un missile intercettore noto come Mica: «Li consumano a vista d’occhio», commenta Le Monde. E il problema è che Mbda, la fabbrica dei Mica, sta lavorando a pieno regime già adesso. Di più: la Francia non ha una legge come quella americana che permette di richiamare forniture già pronte per altri Paesi e stornarle per inviarle dove c’è più bisogno, per cui bisogna aspettare che la fabbrica continui a produrre a rotta di collo. Costo di un Mica: 1 milione di euro. Costo di un’ora di volo di un Rafale: 20mila euro. Costo di un drone Shahed iraniano: 18mila euro scarsi. Per correre ai ripari, Parigi pensa di usare come tattica quella di far avvicinare l’aereo al drone e colpirlo col cannoncino da 30 mm che comunque non è proprio adatto allo scopo. Col rischio di perdere l’aereo se incappa in uno sciame di droni.

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